Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency

Book Description:

Insurgency is the most prevalent form of armed conflict and the subject of countless studies, yet the U.S. military has only recently begun to review doctrine and training in this area. An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals, for example, that good COIN practices tend to ’run in packs’ and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.

From the Publisher

Insurgency has been the most prevalent form of armed conflict since at least 1949, as well as the subject of countless historical and contemporary studies. Contemporary discourse on the subject is voluminous and often contentious, but to date there has been a dearth of systematic evidence supporting the counterinsurgency (COIN) approaches, practices, and tenets that make for successful operations. Relying on a collection of the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, along with a bank of factors that helped or hindered the COIN force in each case and in each phase of each case, several commonalities emerge. For instance, the data show that good COIN practices tend to “run in packs” and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict. The importance of popular support is confirmed, but the ability to interdict tangible support (such as new personnel, materiel, and financing) is the single best predictor of COIN force success. Twenty distinct approaches to COIN are rigorously tested against the historical record, providing valuable lessons for U.S. engagement in and support for COIN operations. A companion volume, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, presents in-depth profiles of each of the

Content

Chapter One:
Introduction

Chapter Two:
The Cases

Chapter Three:
Testing the Approaches to Counterinsurgency

Chapter Four:
Broader Findings

Chapter Five:
Conclusions and Recommendations

Appendix A:
Methods and Data

Appendix B:
Details of Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Appendix C:
Possible Criticisms of the Analyses and Response Commentary